Russian Federation
Theoretical and experimental material relating to the idea of formation of productivity of spring barley under the influence of the complex of mineral fertilizers is sys-tematized. Analytical forecast is carried out, analytical model of definition of relative increase of the crop of model of barley variety with use of geodetails on the uniformity of distribution of natural and resource poten-tial is presented. In considered 1190 options of experi-ment the amount of nitrogen changes in the range of 0-160 kg of in/hectare, phosphorus - 0-90, the amount of potassium - in the range of 0-60 kg of in/hectare. Relative increase of productivity is distributed on an interval of 1.000-1.996 units with the center of dispersion of 1.592 units and standard devia-tion of 0.171 pieces. The area of efficiency of relative increase of productivity depending on three variables is defined by values of function. Average relative increase is estimated by the median. The ade-quacy of model and the importance of weight coeffi-cients were established by Student's t-criterion at the level of 0.05 and to Fischer's F-criterion by means of Statistics subpackage of Maple package. The values of coefficients got to 95 % confidential interval. The analy-sis of rejections of experimental data from theoretical surface showed that standard deviation according to relative increase and similar data calculated on model accepts, respectively, values 0.31 and 0.28, and nonviscous share made 7.20% at its average value of 0.14 %. The divergence of average values of these indi-cators did not exceed 0.005. In options of computing experiment, at the set basic level of productivity of 10 c/hectare, average productivity was estimated by value of 15.92 c/hectare, maximum - 19.66 c/hectare, stand-ard deviation was 1.71 c/hectare. At basic level of productivity of 40 c/hectare average productivity was 63.68 c/hectare, maximum - 78.64 c/hectare, standard deviation was 6.84 c/hectare. Methodical approach by definition of relative increase of productivity was also applicable to other grain crops cultivated in forest-steppe zones of Krasnoyarsk Region.
analytical monitoring, analytical model, productivity, forecasting, model variety of barley, mineral fertilizers complex
1. Zobova N.V., Romanov V.N., Trubnikov Yu.N. i dr. Sistema zemledeliya Krasnoyarskogo kraya na landshaftnoy osnove: nauch.-prakt. rekomendacii / pod red. S.V. Bryleva. - Krasnoyarsk, 2015. - S. 27-32.
2. Trubnikov Yu.N. Prirodnye resursy i agroekolo-gicheskiy potencial sel'skohozyaystvennyh kul'-tur v Krasnoyarskom krae // Dostizheniya nauki i tehniki APK. - 2016. - T. 30, № 6. - S. 63.
3. Agropromyshlennyy kompleks Krasnoyarskogo kraya v 2011-2015 gg. - Krasnoyarsk, 2016. - 217 s.
4. Andronova T.M. Vliyanie vozrastayuschih doz mineral'nyh udobreniy i ih novyh form na urozhay razlichnyh sortov, obrazcov yachmenya i ih kachestvo, 1976-1979 g.: otchet o nauchnoy rabote // Preprint Krasnoyarskogo NIISH. - Krasnoyarsk, 1979. - 10 s.
5. Surin N.A., Lyahova N.E. Selekciya yachmenya Sibiri. - Novosibirsk: Izd-vo SO RASHN; Enisey, 1993. - 292 s.
6. Romanov V.N., Litau V.M. Produktivnost' zernovyh kul'tur v zernoparovom sevooborote v usloviyah Krasnoyarskoy lesostepi // Dostizheniya nauki i tehniki APK. - 2014. - № 6. - S. 43.
7. Moiseev N.N. Matematicheskie zadachi sistemnogo analiza. - M.: Nauka, 1981. - 448 s.
8. Baygina E.M., Shpedt A.A., Kratasyuk V.A. i dr. Razvitie metodov biologicheskogo monitoringa pochv // Pochvennye resursy Sibiri: vyzovy XXI veka: sb. mat-lov Vseros. konf. s mezhdunar. uchastiem (4-8 dekabrya 2017 g., g. Novosibirsk) / otv. red. A.I. Syso. - Tomsk: Izd-vo TGU, 2017. - Ch. 2. - S. 237-241.
9. Ermakov A.I. Metody biohimicheskogo issledovaniya rasteniy. - L.: Agropromizdat, 1987. - 430 s.
10. Dospehov B.A. Metodika polevogo opyta (s osnovami statisticheskoy obrabotki rezul'tatov issledovaniy). - 5-e izd, dop. i pererab. - M.: Agropromizdat, 1985. - 351 s.
11. Draper, Norman R., and Smith, Harry. Applied Regression Analysis. - New York: Wiley, 1998 - 3rd. ed. - 389 p.
12. Montgomery, Douglas C. Introduction to Statistical Quality Control. - 2rd. ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1991. - 243 p.
13. Stuart A., Ord K. Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics. Distribution Theory. - London: Edward Arnold, 1998. - 6th ed. - V. 1. - 375 p.
